Outlook West and Central Africa

The work of the government and the administrative apparatus in several West and Central African countries is slowed down or completely compromised by governance problems. The latter are often linked to persistent tensions between the different political factions both within the ruling governments and between majority and opposition parties.

The presence of high levels of political conflict is an element that characterises (though with varying degrees of intensity) many West and Central African countries, negatively affecting the general security situation in individual states and reducing the ability of police forces to fight crime, terrorist groups and armed groups of different origin that are active on the territory.

These trends are particularly evident, although in different forms, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Cameroon and Ivory Coast, where current events risk having a significant impact on the entire West and Central African region in terms of security. Examples include Nigeria and Cameroon, whose weak borders provide substantial freedom of movement for jihadist groups active in their northern regions, as well as illegal flows of weapons, drugs and humans.

In general, there are currently no signs that the security situation in West and Central Africa is likely to change in a positive manner in 2021. On the contrary, the various factors and data analysed lead us to believe that the security situation in the area will deteriorate compared to the year that just ended.


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